Image source: wikimedia
A report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) argues that the international community’s failure to deter or hold Syrian President Bashar al-Assad accountable for using chemical weapons against civilians may embolden other actors to do the same.
The report, titled “New Trends in the Use of Chemical Weapons in the Middle East,” dated October 16, 2016, and authored by Natasha Hall, underscores the resurgence of chemical weapons in the region and highlights the risks associated with the weakening international response to Assad’s actions.
Key Events and Accountability Concerns
The report references the sarin gas attack on Ghouta in rural Damascus in August 2013, which sparked global condemnation and efforts to dismantle Syria’s chemical weapons stockpile, initially in collaboration with Russia. However, accountability for war crimes in Syria soon diminished, and Russia’s cooperation in investigating chemical attacks and identifying perpetrators waned.
The report outlines how the Assad regime violated international norms without facing significant consequences, raising concerns that other countries might feel encouraged to use chemical weapons indiscriminately, as Assad did.
Chemical Weapons Proliferation in the Middle East
The use of chemical weapons in the Middle East had been dormant for 25 years before their reappearance under Assad’s regime. The report warns that this, coupled with growing geopolitical competition that undermines consensus on international norms such as the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), could create favorable conditions for the proliferation and renewed use of chemical weapons across the region and beyond.
The Middle East Program at CSIS, supported by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency, conducted a study to assess the likelihood of a resurgence of chemical weapons threats in the region and explore what measures the United States can take to counteract them.
Methodology
The project employed desk research and involved 43 interviews with current and former U.S. officials, allies, members of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), the International Criminal Court (ICC), chemical weapons experts, prosecutors, investigators, survivors, and defectors from the Syrian regime.
These interviews and assessments evaluated the probability of a second wave of chemical weapons proliferation in the Middle East and identified strategies for the U.S. to mitigate this threat.
Analysis
The CSIS analysis highlights several concerning trends. Many experts believe that the long-standing taboo against the use of chemical weapons in the Middle East has weakened and may already be undermined.
Experts also noted that chemical weapons, even when used imprecisely, can have a profound psychological impact, spreading fear and terror. Industrial chemicals, like chlorine, which are not explicitly prohibited by the CWC, can cause similar devastation as banned agents such as sarin. This makes it alarmingly easy for almost any actor to employ chemical weapons effectively.
While the Syrian regime’s use of Schedule I agents like sarin drew international condemnation, its repeated use of toxic chemicals like chlorine has largely gone unpunished. This lack of accountability has exposed ambiguities within the CWC regarding toxic chemicals, riot control agents, and pharmaceuticals, which could tempt other states to push the limits of international norms.
Furthermore, the Assad regime has strategically employed a combination of lethal Schedule I chemicals for deterrence and tactical chlorine gas attacks in military operations. The regime’s ability to withstand international sanctions and condemnation may lead other potential adversaries to believe they can do the same.
Although non-state actors pose a lesser threat compared to state actors when it comes to chemical weapons, experts warn that states could blame non-state groups for deceptive chemical attacks to avoid responsibility.
Outcomes and Recommendations
The report presents seven key findings related to U.S. strategy and offers several recommendations for enhancing its role in the region:
- Erosion of the Chemical Weapons Ban: Since Syria’s use of chemical weapons in 2013, the ban on these weapons has weakened. This could embolden Middle Eastern governments, including U.S. partners and allies, to consider using chemical weapons in response to major threats to their regimes.
- Impunity and Escalation: States may feel empowered to act with impunity by observing Syria’s example. They could test the limits of international condemnation and gradually raise the threshold of what is considered unacceptable behavior.
- Disinformation and Obstruction: Users of chemical weapons are likely to spread disinformation and obstruct evidence collection to evade accountability. This undermines the effectiveness of investigations and contributes to the gradual weakening of the Chemical Weapons Convention.
the Author and the Centre:
Natasha Hall is a Senior Fellow in the Middle East Program at CSIS in Washington, D.C. With over 15 years of experience, she has worked extensively as an analyst, researcher, and practitioner in complex humanitarian emergencies and conflict zones, particularly in the Middle East. Her recent work focuses on the Syrian conflict and related issues.
The Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) is an independent, non-profit policy research organization founded in 1962. Based in Washington, D.C., CSIS provides strategic insights and policy solutions to help decision-makers navigate complex global challenges.
assad_regime chemical_attack chemical_weapons syria
